Turn an attendance estimate into a working production range, with prepaid orders and your own capacity kept visible.
Example estimate
32–62
Units in your low–high scenarios, including promised orders
After reserving promised orders, capacity leaves 48 units for walk-up customers.
Your high scenario exceeds capacity by 2 units. Plan for a sellout or change the menu and capacity; do not promise this estimate.
Scenario = visitors × purchase rate × units per buyer + promised units. These are planning assumptions, not a forecast or a recommended conversion rate.
How to use this resource
Use the organizer's attendance estimate as a starting point. Attendance is not the number of people who will pass your booth or buy your products.
Choose low and high purchase rates as scenarios, not industry benchmarks. Compare them with your own sales after each market.
Enter orders already promised separately, then reserve that stock before putting out the walk-up display.
Capacity is the number you can safely make, pack, transport, and sell. The planner flags a shortfall instead of hiding commitments.
After the market, record units made, sold, sampled, and left. Add weather and selling hours so your next estimate has context.
How markets are organized and why it changes what they ask of you, how to read a rulebook before you apply, what fees, insurance, and sales tax involve, what to bring, how the first morning runs, and how to judge the numbers after a month.
You can probably make twenty things well. A market needs three or four you can make every week, that hold up on a folding table, that your state allows, and that nobody else in the tent row is already selling. Here is a set of filters for getting from twenty to four.